Most Washingtonians are ceratin that the Senate would never convict Bill Clinton for his offenses in the upcoming Senate trial. Don't be so sure. These are the same people who insisted Clinton would never be impeached, and there's more than enough reason to believe they'll be wrong again. Whateve the White House hacks may say, and they'll say quite a bit over the next few months, there are three things they can't stop: the witnesses to Clinton's crimes, the Senators who will judge him, and the awakening of the American people.

The last thing Bill Clinton wants are witnesses testifying to the Senate. Sure, the American people seem to have discounted his adultery. They are ware of his lying under oath, and are currently arguing whether that warrants removal from office (more on that later). They probably do not know about Betty Currie being coached by Clinton in the Oval Office, or the effort to shut Kathleen Willey up. When -- this is no longer an if -- these matters reach the Senate floor, Bill Clinton's prospects will look much dimmer.

He also has problems with his jurors. The U.S. Senate prides itself on its bipartisianship, which has now reached a mythical level (i.e. it doesn't exist). Senate Democrats, however, are not like their House counterparts. House Democrats see Bill Clinton as the president whose political acumen allowed them to gain seats in 1998. Senate Democrats see him as the president whose political acumen allowed them to lose seats in 1996. For them, Clinton is a politcal disaster, and nothing more.

Various Senators also have local, and personal, reasons not to support this President. The Southerners (Graham, Breaux, Lanrdieu, Cleland, Hollings, Edwards, and Robb) all hail from states that are not very fond of Bill Clinton. Some of the old liberals (Moynihan, Byrd) still have enough decency to do the right thing. Westerners (Reid, Bryan, Baucus, Dorgan, Conrad, Kerrey), hail from heavily Republican states. This doesn't include mavericks like Feingold, or new Senators like Evan Bayh who entered the Senate this year as one of its most conservative Democrats.

To all of this, the White House's response has been the same, the American people do not want the President removed. However, polls are showing a lot more Americans want him removed today than last month. CNN's poll shows that the number of Americans who think his crimes warrant removal has hit 40%. MSNBC's poll, while showing only 36% support removal has shifted ten points in the last month. Whatever one wants to say about the nature of modern polling, the numbers are moving, and moving quickly, against Clinton. The erosion will probably continue duirng -- and may very well be accelerated by -- the Senate trial, which could cause more Senate Democrats to keep and open mind. Even Dianne Feinstein has said she's waiting for the evidence to make up her mind. If she's not solid behind Clinton, then few are.

The White House knows this. They know they're in trouble. Their only hope is to convince the Senate it's not true, and scare the Senators out of doing their duty. We can't let that happen. The trail must go forward, for the verdict is far from certain.